The King’s Speech maps the path for the year ahead, putting down political markers and setting out the legislative timetable. However there will be a few twists and turns, and perhaps a fork in the road, as we head towards the next general election.
The Speech sets the tone and tenor of the political discourse – whether in a debate to move policy forward, or in playing to the base for political gain.
For the Opposition parties – and Labour in particular – how they respond will demonstrate how bold or cautious, positive or reactive they are as a potential government.
At a time when each party can see advantage in deterring the electorate from voting for the other side, and the potential of a low election turn-out, the public at large are looking for what might inspire them and provide ‘strong leadership’.
A steady as you go, hold your nerve and something will turn up approach to an election risks more than voter apathy. Internal party tensions (in each party) could cause an implosion with other parties ready to fill the gap.
Whether that’s a loophole for a returned Conservative government, a Labour resurgence in Scotland, a renewal of Liberal Democrat’s as power brokers, or gains by Greens or the Reform Party recalibrating domestic politics.
Electorally, despite the opinion polls, a winning hand can still be played by the Conservative Party. The PM can choose a time to call the election, can set an agenda and go to the country on the back of a tax-cutting budget and hint of an economic upturn.
The electoral maths make a Labour win a mountain to climb, in any circumstance. The challenge of an electoral pact with other opposition parties could be seen to concede political ground, rather than viewed as ‘strong leadership’.
Yet the underlying political fatigue and public sense of “it’s time for a change” lays down the gauntlet. Whether that’s played out on a national stage in a May general election, or rehearsed first in the regional and local elections with the government going to the country in October or serving its full term to the end of the year. We wait to see.
What’s clear from today’s King’s Speech is it is not so much about defining the dividing lines between the parties, though traps have been set on crime and sentencing and so-called anti green policies, daring Labour to oppose. Rather it is to shore up the core vote, but it falls well short of a narrative or vision.
There’s little to appeal to young people (written off electorally?) or a growing consensus around education reform and a mental health crisis. Instead there is a retread of policies not all of which require new legislation.
As we look ahead, the King’s Speech threatens a long and winding road of attrition. That in itself is a challenge to good government and responsible opposition.
Citadel 