As Andy Burnham heads into No10, his reputation burnished by vanquishing Reform ‘against the odds’ in the Makerfield by-election, he has a short honeymoon period to appoint a new Cabinet. No longer ‘king of the north’ of England he must govern as the Prime Minster of the UK. He has promised to “hand power to communities” and greater devolution to get things done, yet that risks putting greater power into the hands of an insurgent Reform party in local councils and the devolved administrations.
We don’t have to look far to see what governing a nation could look like when Reform makes huge political inroads. In Wales the Senedd is set up to encourage cross-party cooperation but in 2026 Reform now forms the opposition as the second largest party. After the results and insights from the Welsh Government elections this year, the question is ‘Is Andy Burnham going to be able to reinstall faith in Welsh Labour by working with Plaid Cymru, or is the rise of Reform an inevitable path for Welsh politics?’.
The breakdown of seats in the Senedd reflects the strong left/right divide seen in Wales and the UK at large. While no party has ever won an outright Senedd majority it is still unclear how combative the new parliament is going to be. However, the first significant set back for the new Plaid administration took place in the last week before summer recess, when the budget failed to pass.
Plaid will have to reach across party lines in order to pass their budget and other legislation. While all parties will have to engage in non-partisan negotiations, the question is whether Reform will carry the day. We asked insiders in Cardiff what they think from what they’ve seen so far, and the impact of Reform in the Senedd.
“Plaid Cymru’s historic victory in the 2026 Senedd elections, and Welsh Labour’s collapse, has shaken Welsh politics to its core,” said one public affairs manager.
He continued: “A wide-ranging realignment in party politics has taken place, with the traditional representatives of the left and right blocs, Labour and the Conservatives, making way for Plaid and Reform. Plaid now have a generational opportunity to demonstrate their credentials in government after 27 years in opposition in the Senedd.”
An experienced communications executive argued: “It’s true, that whilst Plaid Cymru have retained a large proportion of the vote, they have still not amounted to enough for a majority hold in the Senedd. Yet Reform’s sudden rise, after only previously winning 1-2% of the vote in the last election, have dominated areas that were once recognised as Conservative constituencies, pointing towards these voters wanting a stricter right government for Wales. This isn’t a completely new trend across Wales, after the strong vote of Leave in the 2016 EU referendum and earlier support towards UKIP was not unusual.”
It would be amiss to acknowledge the dissatisfaction with Welsh Labour when it comes to the Senedd Election. It is also hard to ignore the amount of ex-Labour voters and constituents who have turned to tactical voting, whether for Plaid Cymru or Green, with Reform’s rise in popularity. Many voters saw preventing a Reform breakthrough as the priority when it came down to who to vote for in May 2026.
However Welsh politics is still shaped by identity and institutions, but increasingly also by how devolved government is felt in everyday life. This makes devolved governance more visible in Wales than previously, but also more open to challenge.
According to Robin Mann, a political student of Welsh politics, “dissatisfaction with Welsh Labour is no longer flowing in a single political direction, but is instead being split between competing populist, nationalist and progressive responses to devolved governance.”
The extent to which this was homegrown in Wales, turning its back on Welsh Labour, or heavily impacted by the wider populist surge against an incumbent Labour UK government, will be tested in the months ahead.
As all eyes now turn to this month’s Greater Manchester mayoral election: will a Burnham bounce carry Labour to victory, and his new government help turn the political tide in Wales? Has the Farage summer sideshow of an uncontested Clacton by-election derailed Reform who had made sweeping gains in Wales just two months ago? With a full 4 year term in the Senedd, as the political winds blow, we will see the extent to which “progressive” parties will hold their line against the populist forces of Reform.
Citadel 